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Thursday 8 February 2018

You're Fired! - You're Hired.

Belgium



Netherlands



England
The appointment of Ronald Koeman as Netherland's new head coach in just a matter of months following his termination as Everton manager raises a number of questions. Particularly as he succeeded Roberto Martinez who was appointed the manager of the Belgian national team in even less time. The new manager of Everton, previously the England manager, is now under the same pressure as his predecessors from fans on social media and that is despite the club spending more than it has ever spent in a transfer window on new signings.

So the question must be asked 'Why?'

Chris Anderson and David Sally attempt to explain maybe the reason in The Numbers Game, when they state that because football is a low-scoring game, results hinge more on chance than other sports.

Who wins a football game is determined by 50 per cent skill and 50 per cent luck with about half of all goals occurring after a moment of fortune - ball deflections, lucky bounces, a bad decision from a referee.

Studies over 15 years on Premier League sacking by Dutch academics have concluded that on average results tend to improve whether a manager is sacked or not and that on average, an in-season replacement of the manager has zero effect on performances, either during the season or in the long run.

This is not to say that a club should never sack their manager after a poor set of results but there is possibly only an elite group, maybe 10% of all managers, who are skilled enough to make a significant improvement. It is also improbable that a sacking during the season will enable a club to replace them with a manager from within this elite group and so the status quo will likely continue as the replacement will probably come an unemployed pool who are there for a reason.

Maybe clubs instead of incessantly changing their manager and spending so much cash on sackings would be better off instead investing in other areas such as scouting, youth coaching or improving facilities - where it could actually make a difference.

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